Looking back on those 2010/2014 voting figures
a couple of fairly predictable patterns stand out. If one excludes Barnehurst
and Blackfen & Lamorbey where the two established parties faced competition from three newcomers, UKIP
and Mick Barnbrook’s Independents respectively, the patterns emerge reasonably well.
The Labour party increased its share of the vote everywhere except in Brampton where the multitude of O’Neill’s proved that Teresa was talking out of her ample backside when she suggested her electorate couldn’t read.
The Conservatives share of the vote elsewhere was either near to static or tended to fall except in the extreme south where it rose. Given the circumstances it was a strong performance by the Tories. Crime and dishonesty must pay.
It is in Barnehurst where three UKIP candidates threw their hats into the ring and Blackfen & Lamorbey where the Independents stood where there is more of a puzzle. Why was the per candidate UKIP vote in Barnehurst noticeably lower than its immediate neighbours when it was Barnehurst which was the party’s main focus? If they had achieved what was done in next door Christchurch for example it would have pulled the Tories down enough for it to be a UKIP win. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Blackfen & Lamorbey saw by far the biggest Conservative percentage share fall. 22.5%. The Independents and UKIP gained a 37% share between them so it looks like they must have robbed the 2010 ‘Others’ fairly comprehensively as well as Craske & Co.
This electoral analysis lark is far too complicated for me.